Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nihon Dempa Kogyo Co., Ltd. (6779.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$806.17 - $1,547.17$1,103.15
Multi-Stage$1,210.84 - $1,328.05$1,268.33
Blended Fair Value$1,185.74
Current Price$931.00
Upside27.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS269.74%5.91%29.9819.9618.350.000.000.040.1317.0116.9617.14
YoY Growth--50.22%8.75%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%-99.23%0.26%-1.01%1.54%
Dividend Yield--3.98%1.38%1.42%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.02%3.18%1.94%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,187.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)692.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)495.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.40148.3889.03
Cash Retained (M)495.00495.00495.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.40-148.38-89.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)257.60346.63405.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.0523.0523.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.1715.0417.61
LTM Dividend per Share30.0230.0230.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.1715.0417.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend41.1945.0647.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$806.17$1,103.15$1,547.17
Upside / Downside-13.41%18.49%66.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,187.001,216.551,246.841,277.871,309.691,342.291,382.56
Payout Ratio58.30%64.64%70.98%77.32%83.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)692.00786.36884.99988.041,095.681,208.061,278.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)729.96737.15744.34
Year 2 PV (M)762.59777.70792.95
Year 3 PV (M)790.33813.92837.98
Year 4 PV (M)813.56846.11879.62
Year 5 PV (M)832.67874.51918.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,982.7825,187.8426,440.85
Equity Value (M)27,911.9029,237.2230,613.75
Shares Outstanding (M)23.0523.0523.05
Fair Value$1,210.84$1,268.33$1,328.05
Upside / Downside30.06%36.23%42.65%

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