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Definitive Analysis

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Yamabiko Corporation (6250.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,990.60 - $68,551.82$64,243.10
Multi-Stage$9,919.42 - $10,860.35$10,381.23
Blended Fair Value$37,312.16
Current Price$2,547.00
Upside1,364.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS11.48%9.66%69.7152.7572.0040.6035.5340.4835.2625.1630.2830.23
YoY Growth--32.15%-26.74%77.34%14.29%-12.24%14.81%40.16%-16.92%0.16%9.07%
Dividend Yield--2.93%2.70%5.47%2.71%2.89%4.99%3.27%1.81%2.50%4.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,127.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,899.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,228.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,825.401,765.881,059.53
Cash Retained (M)10,228.0010,228.0010,228.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,825.40-1,765.88-1,059.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,402.608,462.139,168.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9840.9840.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.62206.48223.71
LTM Dividend per Share95.1495.1495.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.62206.48223.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend275.76301.61318.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27,990.60$64,243.10$68,551.82
Upside / Downside998.96%2,422.30%2,591.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,127.0015,045.2616,023.2017,064.7018,173.9119,355.2119,935.87
Payout Ratio27.60%40.08%52.56%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,899.006,030.098,421.7611,098.8614,088.4017,419.6918,440.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,606.825,659.975,713.11
Year 2 PV (M)7,280.957,419.637,559.62
Year 3 PV (M)8,921.889,178.009,438.97
Year 4 PV (M)10,530.1010,935.0611,351.59
Year 5 PV (M)12,106.1012,690.8313,297.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)362,088.71379,577.73397,736.10
Equity Value (M)406,534.57425,461.22445,097.33
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9840.9840.98
Fair Value$9,919.42$10,381.23$10,860.35
Upside / Downside289.46%307.59%326.40%

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