Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Jiujiang Co., Ltd. (6190.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.35 - $11.82$9.37
Multi-Stage$12.91 - $14.20$13.54
Blended Fair Value$11.45
Current Price$3.51
Upside226.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.73%5.03%0.180.210.200.090.110.070.070.090.060.08
YoY Growth---13.78%1.80%136.80%-18.94%46.06%-1.40%-17.00%39.29%-21.13%-26.16%
Dividend Yield--3.64%3.28%2.41%0.97%1.15%0.76%0.79%1.01%0.67%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,967.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)195.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,771.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.43245.89147.53
Cash Retained (M)1,771.541,771.541,771.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.43-245.89-147.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,378.111,525.651,624.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,847.372,847.372,847.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Fair Value$7.35$9.37$11.82
Upside / Downside109.28%166.83%236.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,967.131,977.851,988.631,999.462,010.362,021.322,081.96
Payout Ratio9.94%25.95%41.97%57.98%73.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)195.59513.34834.541,159.231,487.441,819.181,925.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Year 1 PV (M)474.83479.60484.37
Year 2 PV (M)714.03728.45743.01
Year 3 PV (M)917.44945.36973.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,088.881,133.301,179.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,231.831,294.961,360.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,322.0033,978.4335,702.09
Equity Value (M)36,749.0038,560.1040,443.04
Shares Outstanding (M)2,847.372,847.372,847.37
Fair Value$12.91$13.54$14.20
Upside / Downside267.70%285.82%304.66%

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