Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Fulai New Material Co.,Ltd. (605488.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.94 - $16.39$12.02
Multi-Stage$19.91 - $21.90$20.88
Blended Fair Value$16.45
Current Price$36.15
Upside-54.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS1.93%0.00%0.300.250.310.290.290.280.070.010.000.00
YoY Growth--21.19%-19.82%9.45%-2.10%5.66%294.63%419.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%2.57%3.19%2.34%2.02%1.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7416.7110.03
Cash Retained (M)67.6167.6167.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.74-16.71-10.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.8750.8957.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.28213.28213.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$8.94$12.02$16.39
Upside / Downside-75.27%-66.75%-54.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.70134.93136.18137.44138.72140.00144.20
Payout Ratio49.43%57.55%65.66%73.77%81.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.0977.6589.42101.40113.59126.00133.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)72.8573.5874.31
Year 2 PV (M)78.7180.2981.89
Year 3 PV (M)83.7486.2788.86
Year 4 PV (M)88.0191.5895.27
Year 5 PV (M)91.5996.26101.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,830.684,026.234,229.69
Equity Value (M)4,245.574,454.234,671.15
Shares Outstanding (M)213.28213.28213.28
Fair Value$19.91$20.88$21.90
Upside / Downside-44.93%-42.23%-39.41%

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