Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (605339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.49 - $2.20$1.84
Multi-Stage$2.90 - $3.17$3.03
Blended Fair Value$2.43
Current Price$17.05
Upside-85.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.31%0.00%0.130.330.360.300.510.160.620.350.130.06
YoY Growth---60.55%-8.97%18.26%-40.60%218.06%-74.33%77.24%170.26%121.23%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%1.89%1.37%1.32%2.08%0.66%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.999.995.99
Cash Retained (M)4.444.444.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.99-9.99-5.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.55-5.55-1.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.49$1.84$2.20
Upside / Downside-91.23%-89.24%-87.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.9379.1378.3477.5676.7876.0178.29
Payout Ratio94.45%93.56%92.67%91.78%90.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.4974.0372.5971.1869.7868.4172.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)67.8568.5569.24
Year 2 PV (M)60.9862.2463.50
Year 3 PV (M)54.8156.5058.23
Year 4 PV (M)49.2551.2953.39
Year 5 PV (M)44.2546.5548.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)936.47985.241,036.01
Equity Value (M)1,213.611,270.361,329.33
Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
Fair Value$2.90$3.03$3.17
Upside / Downside-83.02%-82.22%-81.40%

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