Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongyin Babi Food Co., Ltd. (605338.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.27 - $235.21$220.43
Multi-Stage$37.46 - $40.96$39.18
Blended Fair Value$129.80
Current Price$23.18
Upside459.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS24.26%0.00%0.410.340.280.170.000.140.050.010.040.00
YoY Growth--21.43%20.61%69.17%0.00%-100.00%200.00%225.08%-64.01%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.32%1.94%0.90%0.57%0.00%0.76%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)283.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.6835.4321.26
Cash Retained (M)90.9590.9590.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.68-35.43-21.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.2755.5269.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)239.64239.64239.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.230.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.230.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$123.27$220.43$235.21
Upside / Downside431.78%850.94%914.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)283.42301.85321.47342.36364.62388.32399.97
Payout Ratio67.91%72.33%76.75%81.16%85.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.47218.32246.71277.88312.05349.48369.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)203.43205.36207.29
Year 2 PV (M)214.22218.30222.41
Year 3 PV (M)224.82231.28237.85
Year 4 PV (M)235.25244.30253.61
Year 5 PV (M)245.51257.37269.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,852.578,231.858,625.65
Equity Value (M)8,975.819,388.469,816.50
Shares Outstanding (M)239.64239.64239.64
Fair Value$37.46$39.18$40.96
Upside / Downside61.58%69.01%76.72%

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