Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CoCreation Grass Co., Ltd (605099.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.39 - $314.52$294.75
Multi-Stage$46.65 - $51.05$48.81
Blended Fair Value$171.78
Current Price$30.90
Upside455.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162013
DPS27.53%21.15%0.540.560.470.500.150.160.230.460.040.02
YoY Growth---4.10%18.58%-5.62%231.23%-5.11%-29.09%-51.22%965.60%96.11%-72.06%
Dividend Yield--2.62%2.63%2.08%1.87%0.54%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)632.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)257.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)375.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.5779.1147.46
Cash Retained (M)375.80375.80375.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.57-79.11-47.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)249.23296.69328.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.16400.16400.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$135.39$294.75$314.52
Upside / Downside338.16%853.89%917.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)632.85673.98717.79764.45814.14867.06893.07
Payout Ratio40.62%50.49%60.37%70.25%80.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)257.05340.32433.34537.00652.32780.35826.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)316.59319.60322.60
Year 2 PV (M)375.01382.16389.37
Year 3 PV (M)432.32444.73457.38
Year 4 PV (M)488.54507.33526.65
Year 5 PV (M)543.68569.94597.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,510.8717,308.3518,136.35
Equity Value (M)18,667.0219,532.1020,429.55
Shares Outstanding (M)400.16400.16400.16
Fair Value$46.65$48.81$51.05
Upside / Downside50.97%57.96%65.22%

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