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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Action Education Technology CO.,LTD. (605098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$185.47 - $483.59$453.19
Multi-Stage$69.75 - $76.30$72.96
Blended Fair Value$263.08
Current Price$37.21
Upside607.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.51%40.37%2.492.781.090.500.350.210.350.430.110.00
YoY Growth---10.54%155.41%119.21%43.60%62.50%-39.39%-17.50%290.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.05%6.17%2.88%1.40%1.22%0.75%1.24%1.50%0.39%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)149.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.7636.1021.66
Cash Retained (M)139.76139.76139.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.76-36.10-21.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.00103.66118.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.76118.76118.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.870.99
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.870.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.952.132.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$185.47$453.19$483.59
Upside / Downside398.44%1,117.93%1,199.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.79307.56327.55348.84371.52395.67407.54
Payout Ratio51.61%59.28%66.96%74.64%82.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)149.03182.33219.34260.38305.84356.10376.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)169.43171.04172.64
Year 2 PV (M)189.39193.00196.64
Year 3 PV (M)208.92214.91221.02
Year 4 PV (M)228.02236.78245.80
Year 5 PV (M)246.70258.61270.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,241.227,590.977,954.11
Equity Value (M)8,283.678,665.329,061.20
Shares Outstanding (M)118.76118.76118.76
Fair Value$69.75$72.96$76.30
Upside / Downside87.45%96.08%105.04%

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