Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc. (605080.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.28 - $57.86$38.73
Multi-Stage$19.46 - $21.28$20.35
Blended Fair Value$29.54
Current Price$25.63
Upside15.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS56.41%0.00%0.110.160.320.000.020.010.450.590.150.00
YoY Growth---34.40%-49.85%48,698.55%-95.87%41.29%-97.46%-24.12%282.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.85%0.97%0.00%0.05%0.04%1.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9525.6015.36
Cash Retained (M)202.76202.76202.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.95-25.60-15.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.81177.16187.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.85140.85140.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.261.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.261.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.28$38.73$57.86
Upside / Downside6.43%51.10%125.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.77218.08232.25247.35263.42280.55288.96
Payout Ratio0.98%18.78%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.0140.9684.98134.54190.18252.49267.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8937.2437.59
Year 2 PV (M)68.9270.2371.55
Year 3 PV (M)98.26101.08103.96
Year 4 PV (M)125.09129.90134.85
Year 5 PV (M)149.57156.79164.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,262.442,371.722,485.18
Equity Value (M)2,741.172,866.972,997.42
Shares Outstanding (M)140.85140.85140.85
Fair Value$19.46$20.35$21.28
Upside / Downside-24.07%-20.58%-16.97%

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