Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Shaanxi Meibang Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (605033.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.54 - $2.21$1.87
Multi-Stage$2.63 - $2.88$2.75
Blended Fair Value$2.31
Current Price$22.22
Upside-89.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS68.64%0.00%0.210.220.200.020.010.020.030.030.000.00
YoY Growth---5.31%11.84%709.99%370.98%-66.24%-42.19%-0.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%1.43%1.12%0.14%0.03%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.963.722.23
Cash Retained (M)8.238.238.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.96-3.72-2.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.284.516.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)135.67135.67135.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.54$1.87$2.21
Upside / Downside-93.08%-91.60%-90.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.7829.4829.1928.8928.6128.3229.17
Payout Ratio72.35%75.88%79.41%82.94%86.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.5522.3723.1823.9724.7425.4926.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.2820.4920.70
Year 2 PV (M)19.0519.4419.84
Year 3 PV (M)17.8618.4118.97
Year 4 PV (M)16.7117.4018.12
Year 5 PV (M)15.6116.4217.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)267.02280.93295.41
Equity Value (M)356.53373.09390.30
Shares Outstanding (M)135.67135.67135.67
Fair Value$2.63$2.75$2.88
Upside / Downside-88.17%-87.62%-87.05%

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