Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

JCHX Mining Management Co.,Ltd. (603979.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.45 - $239.80$131.80
Multi-Stage$56.26 - $61.50$58.83
Blended Fair Value$95.31
Current Price$69.74
Upside36.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.99%12.74%0.440.110.090.070.070.070.070.030.050.04
YoY Growth--299.20%20.81%28.91%-0.03%6.70%-1.35%95.00%-25.00%2.04%-66.03%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.21%0.30%0.34%0.48%0.85%0.73%0.37%0.30%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,243.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,863.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)448.75280.47168.28
Cash Retained (M)1,863.381,863.381,863.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-448.75-280.47-168.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.631,582.911,695.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.45$131.80$239.80
Upside / Downside21.09%88.98%243.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,243.732,389.572,544.892,710.312,886.483,074.103,166.33
Payout Ratio16.95%31.56%46.17%60.78%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.35754.181,175.001,647.352,176.132,766.692,928.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)685.93692.43698.93
Year 2 PV (M)971.95990.461,009.15
Year 3 PV (M)1,239.341,274.921,311.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,488.991,546.251,605.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,721.751,804.911,891.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,797.0932,284.6033,829.04
Equity Value (M)36,905.0538,593.5840,344.70
Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
Fair Value$56.26$58.83$61.50
Upside / Downside-19.33%-15.64%-11.81%

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