Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co., Ltd. (Tianjin) (603969.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.63 - $7.62$5.96
Multi-Stage$5.11 - $5.60$5.35
Blended Fair Value$5.65
Current Price$10.77
Upside-47.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.93%7.17%0.090.080.030.090.090.140.090.110.070.04
YoY Growth--20.82%195.21%-72.56%5.42%-35.87%53.27%-16.40%55.26%62.79%-6.76%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.35%0.54%1.74%1.97%3.50%1.39%1.68%0.93%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)341.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)314.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.2142.6325.58
Cash Retained (M)314.51314.51314.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.21-42.63-25.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.30271.88288.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)855.34855.34855.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$4.63$5.96$7.62
Upside / Downside-57.01%-44.68%-29.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)341.03352.67364.71377.16390.03403.35415.45
Payout Ratio7.78%24.22%40.67%57.11%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.5285.42148.31215.40286.89363.01384.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)77.2878.0378.79
Year 2 PV (M)121.38123.76126.17
Year 3 PV (M)159.48164.20169.01
Year 4 PV (M)192.16199.78207.62
Year 5 PV (M)219.97230.92242.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,599.663,778.873,965.14
Equity Value (M)4,369.944,575.564,789.03
Shares Outstanding (M)855.34855.34855.34
Fair Value$5.11$5.35$5.60
Upside / Downside-52.56%-50.33%-48.01%

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