Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jinhua Chunguang Technology Co.,Ltd (603657.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.20 - $5.22$3.25
Multi-Stage$1.65 - $1.80$1.72
Blended Fair Value$2.49
Current Price$38.18
Upside-93.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.49%23.35%0.150.320.330.520.340.560.020.021.150.03
YoY Growth---54.21%-3.04%-37.00%51.72%-38.24%3,597.23%-27.42%-98.19%4,227.30%48.04%
Dividend Yield--0.87%2.42%1.96%2.90%1.76%3.49%0.06%0.11%6.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.891.801.08
Cash Retained (M)4.004.004.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.89-1.80-1.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.122.202.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)139.36139.36139.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.20$3.25$5.22
Upside / Downside-94.24%-91.49%-86.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.4315.3716.3717.4318.5619.7720.36
Payout Ratio72.25%75.80%79.35%82.90%86.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4311.6512.9914.4516.0517.7918.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5410.6410.74
Year 2 PV (M)10.6410.8411.04
Year 3 PV (M)10.7111.0211.33
Year 4 PV (M)10.7611.1811.60
Year 5 PV (M)10.8011.3211.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)176.63185.17194.02
Equity Value (M)230.08240.16250.60
Shares Outstanding (M)139.36139.36139.36
Fair Value$1.65$1.72$1.80
Upside / Downside-95.68%-95.49%-95.29%

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