Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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UE Furniture Co., Ltd. (603600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.42 - $156.75$146.89
Multi-Stage$23.61 - $25.84$24.71
Blended Fair Value$85.80
Current Price$10.81
Upside693.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.16%20.54%0.600.340.260.310.230.390.390.180.150.07
YoY Growth--74.97%33.66%-16.81%35.36%-41.14%-1.04%117.35%19.35%124.77%-27.60%
Dividend Yield--5.15%2.75%2.36%3.34%1.91%2.76%3.71%1.57%0.72%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5732.8619.71
Cash Retained (M)143.48143.48143.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.57-32.86-19.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.90110.62123.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)333.51333.51333.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.42$146.89$156.75
Upside / Downside551.44%1,258.88%1,350.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.87279.95298.15317.53338.17360.15370.95
Payout Ratio45.42%54.33%63.25%72.17%81.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.39152.11188.58229.15274.20324.13343.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141.56142.90144.24
Year 2 PV (M)163.33166.44169.58
Year 3 PV (M)184.70190.00195.40
Year 4 PV (M)205.68213.58221.72
Year 5 PV (M)226.27237.19248.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,953.677,289.537,638.25
Equity Value (M)7,875.198,239.658,617.73
Shares Outstanding (M)333.51333.51333.51
Fair Value$23.61$24.71$25.84
Upside / Downside118.43%128.54%139.03%

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