Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co., Ltd (603596.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.42 - $432.88$151.07
Multi-Stage$44.35 - $48.53$46.40
Blended Fair Value$98.74
Current Price$53.89
Upside83.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.64%56.52%0.260.240.090.090.070.060.060.050.120.02
YoY Growth--7.24%163.19%1.82%20.73%22.85%-2.28%36.54%-62.93%532.72%561.71%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.60%0.18%0.19%0.38%0.38%0.38%0.29%0.79%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,322.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)264.46165.2999.17
Cash Retained (M)1,145.541,145.541,145.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-264.46-165.29-99.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)881.08980.251,046.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)607.51607.51607.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.451.611.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.451.611.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.741.902.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.42$151.07$432.88
Upside / Downside45.52%180.33%703.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,322.311,408.261,499.801,597.291,701.111,811.691,866.04
Payout Ratio13.37%28.69%44.02%59.35%74.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.78404.10660.23947.951,270.281,630.521,726.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)371.20374.71378.23
Year 2 PV (M)557.08567.70578.41
Year 3 PV (M)734.72755.81777.30
Year 4 PV (M)904.38939.16974.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,066.321,117.821,171.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,309.9924,435.8725,604.84
Equity Value (M)26,943.6928,191.0729,485.01
Shares Outstanding (M)607.51607.51607.51
Fair Value$44.35$46.40$48.53
Upside / Downside-17.70%-13.89%-9.94%

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