Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

HMT (Xiamen) New Technical Materials Co., Ltd (603306.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.14 - $57.49$31.48
Multi-Stage$13.35 - $14.59$13.96
Blended Fair Value$22.72
Current Price$56.06
Upside-59.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.76%30.01%0.210.200.120.140.440.490.380.480.230.07
YoY Growth--6.83%68.44%-16.52%-68.63%-10.00%29.88%-21.30%109.92%214.42%382.02%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.93%0.31%0.45%1.95%3.61%2.28%2.66%0.84%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)253.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.7631.7219.03
Cash Retained (M)219.18219.18219.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.76-31.72-19.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)168.42187.46200.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)312.37312.37312.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.14$31.48$57.49
Upside / Downside-64.08%-43.85%2.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)253.79270.29287.86306.57326.50347.72358.15
Payout Ratio13.64%28.91%44.18%59.45%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.6178.14127.18182.27243.98312.95331.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)71.0871.7572.42
Year 2 PV (M)105.23107.23109.26
Year 3 PV (M)137.18141.11145.13
Year 4 PV (M)167.02173.45180.05
Year 5 PV (M)194.87204.28214.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,493.333,662.063,837.24
Equity Value (M)4,168.704,359.884,558.15
Shares Outstanding (M)312.37312.37312.37
Fair Value$13.35$13.96$14.59
Upside / Downside-76.19%-75.10%-73.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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