Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangxi Jiangnan New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (603124.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.21 - $19.35$16.17
Multi-Stage$23.29 - $25.59$24.41
Blended Fair Value$20.29
Current Price$87.15
Upside-76.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2125.7615.45
Cash Retained (M)132.56132.56132.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.21-25.76-15.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.35106.80117.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.13119.13119.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.900.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.900.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.21$16.17$19.35
Upside / Downside-84.85%-81.45%-77.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.06203.99201.95199.94197.94195.96201.84
Payout Ratio35.67%46.53%57.40%68.27%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.4994.93115.92136.49156.63176.36186.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)86.7987.6888.56
Year 2 PV (M)96.9098.89100.90
Year 3 PV (M)104.32107.54110.84
Year 4 PV (M)109.45113.99118.67
Year 5 PV (M)112.68118.54124.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,263.862,381.752,504.49
Equity Value (M)2,774.012,908.403,048.11
Shares Outstanding (M)119.13119.13119.13
Fair Value$23.29$24.41$25.59
Upside / Downside-73.28%-71.99%-70.64%

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