Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (601872.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.71 - $124.70$64.24
Multi-Stage$14.68 - $16.04$15.35
Blended Fair Value$39.80
Current Price$8.88
Upside348.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.73%39.04%0.490.350.210.160.150.160.110.140.080.04
YoY Growth--39.80%67.25%28.07%6.04%-4.93%44.61%-21.10%85.06%87.89%125.52%
Dividend Yield--7.52%4.40%2.99%3.47%3.55%3.05%2.70%4.59%1.70%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,038.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,966.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,007.63629.77377.86
Cash Retained (M)2,071.622,071.622,071.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,007.63-629.77-377.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,063.991,441.851,693.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,035.128,035.128,035.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.71$64.24$124.70
Upside / Downside212.10%623.46%1,304.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,038.165,365.645,714.406,085.846,481.426,902.717,109.79
Payout Ratio58.88%65.11%71.33%77.55%83.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,966.543,493.314,076.024,719.725,429.896,212.446,576.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,221.793,252.323,282.86
Year 2 PV (M)3,467.023,533.063,599.72
Year 3 PV (M)3,702.523,808.803,917.10
Year 4 PV (M)3,928.544,079.634,235.02
Year 5 PV (M)4,145.374,345.594,553.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,519.67104,326.51109,317.31
Equity Value (M)117,984.90123,345.90128,905.49
Shares Outstanding (M)8,035.128,035.128,035.12
Fair Value$14.68$15.35$16.04
Upside / Downside65.36%72.87%80.66%

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