Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. (601838.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.55 - $627.19$247.00
Multi-Stage$65.93 - $72.19$69.00
Blended Fair Value$158.00
Current Price$17.25
Upside815.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.29%17.95%1.110.960.720.580.540.360.300.250.300.22
YoY Growth--16.38%32.34%25.15%7.12%49.52%19.97%19.76%-15.32%32.43%4.74%
Dividend Yield--6.48%6.98%5.34%3.85%4.79%4.80%3.30%2.27%2.95%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,312.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,842.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,662.541,664.09998.45
Cash Retained (M)12,842.8912,842.8912,842.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,662.54-1,664.09-998.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,180.3411,178.8011,844.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,221.324,221.324,221.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.652.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.652.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.55$247.00$627.19
Upside / Downside604.64%1,331.90%3,535.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,312.7214,178.0515,099.6216,081.1017,126.3718,239.5918,786.77
Payout Ratio3.53%20.82%38.12%55.41%72.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.842,952.355,755.608,910.8112,451.8716,415.6317,377.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,715.792,741.532,767.27
Year 2 PV (M)4,870.214,962.975,056.61
Year 3 PV (M)6,935.897,134.997,337.87
Year 4 PV (M)8,915.549,258.419,611.07
Year 5 PV (M)10,811.8211,334.0311,876.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)244,050.92255,838.68268,077.57
Equity Value (M)278,300.17291,270.61304,726.63
Shares Outstanding (M)4,221.324,221.324,221.32
Fair Value$65.93$69.00$72.19
Upside / Downside282.19%300.00%318.48%

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