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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (601801.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.48 - $60.70$23.59
Multi-Stage$10.06 - $11.02$10.53
Blended Fair Value$17.06
Current Price$6.52
Upside161.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.18%16.48%0.430.190.170.160.160.180.170.160.120.11
YoY Growth--127.45%8.82%6.25%0.00%-8.57%2.94%6.25%34.52%13.04%15.00%
Dividend Yield--6.28%2.36%2.74%3.13%3.36%3.78%2.10%1.65%0.72%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)848.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)220.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)628.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.75106.0963.66
Cash Retained (M)628.25628.25628.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.75-106.09-63.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)458.50522.16564.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,943.351,943.351,943.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$13.48$23.59$60.70
Upside / Downside106.68%261.79%830.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)848.75895.14944.07995.671,050.091,107.481,140.71
Payout Ratio25.98%38.78%51.59%64.39%77.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)220.50347.17487.02641.13810.62996.731,055.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)320.86323.93327.00
Year 2 PV (M)416.00424.00432.08
Year 3 PV (M)506.13520.80535.76
Year 4 PV (M)591.44614.41638.04
Year 5 PV (M)672.11704.90738.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,044.9017,876.4818,740.21
Equity Value (M)19,551.4320,464.5221,412.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,943.351,943.351,943.35
Fair Value$10.06$10.53$11.02
Upside / Downside54.31%61.51%68.99%

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