Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. (601616.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.19 - $0.29$0.24
Multi-Stage$0.26 - $0.28$0.27
Blended Fair Value$0.25
Current Price$4.06
Upside-93.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.98%2.55%0.070.070.000.100.060.040.020.000.060.06
YoY Growth---1.50%2,130.05%-96.87%74.62%33.89%102.86%0.00%-100.00%-0.04%-1.53%
Dividend Yield--1.62%2.34%0.09%3.07%1.74%1.54%0.47%0.00%0.94%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.822.391.43
Cash Retained (M)13.6213.6213.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.82-2.39-1.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8011.2312.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)849.65849.65849.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Fair Value$0.19$0.24$0.29
Upside / Downside-95.22%-94.08%-92.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.1219.4119.7120.0220.3320.6421.26
Payout Ratio28.77%41.01%53.26%65.51%77.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.507.9610.5013.1115.8118.5819.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Year 1 PV (M)7.187.257.32
Year 2 PV (M)8.538.708.87
Year 3 PV (M)9.609.8910.18
Year 4 PV (M)10.4310.8511.28
Year 5 PV (M)11.0511.6112.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)170.35178.99187.98
Equity Value (M)217.13227.28237.82
Shares Outstanding (M)849.65849.65849.65
Fair Value$0.26$0.27$0.28
Upside / Downside-93.71%-93.41%-93.11%

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