DDM Analysis: 601608.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.89 - $1.42	$1.13
Multi-Stage	$0.98 - $1.08	$1.03
Blended Fair Value	$1.08
Current Price	$5.38
Upside	-79.92%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	65.22%	-8.29%	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.10	0.07	0.09	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	43.13%	-40.33%	-12.98%	-21.42%	2,008.26%	-97.07%	39.73%	-19.79%	-13.15%	19.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.77%	0.57%	1.13%	1.36%	1.72%	0.09%	1.91%	2.03%	1.54%	1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	375.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	341.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75.06	46.91	28.15
Cash Retained (M)	341.25	341.25	341.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75.06	-46.91	-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	266.19	294.34	313.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,576.92	4,576.92	4,576.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.07	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	2.27%	3.27%	4.27%
Fair Value	$0.89	$1.13	$1.42
Upside / Downside	-83.50%	-79.00%	-73.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	375.31	387.60	400.29	413.40	426.94	440.92	454.15
Payout Ratio	9.07%	25.26%	41.44%	57.63%	73.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.06	97.91	165.90	238.24	315.15	396.83	420.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	2.27%	3.27%	4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	88.28	89.14	90.01
Year 2 PV (M)	134.87	137.53	140.20
Year 3 PV (M)	174.64	179.81	185.09
Year 4 PV (M)	208.29	216.56	225.07
Year 5 PV (M)	236.48	248.27	260.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,663.62	3,846.26	4,036.12
Equity Value (M)	4,506.19	4,717.57	4,937.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,576.92	4,576.92	4,576.92
Fair Value	$0.98	$1.03	$1.08
Upside / Downside	-81.70%	-80.84%	-79.95%

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CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (601608.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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