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Definitive Analysis

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Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited (601198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.44 - $135.32$126.81
Multi-Stage$22.43 - $24.57$23.48
Blended Fair Value$75.14
Current Price$11.59
Upside548.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.32%10.75%0.350.270.560.520.590.510.540.460.530.30
YoY Growth--30.18%-51.99%7.04%-11.46%15.48%-5.76%17.29%-11.70%76.71%135.39%
Dividend Yield--3.04%3.32%6.68%5.37%5.41%4.70%3.91%3.26%2.86%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,200.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)541.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)440.04275.03165.02
Cash Retained (M)1,658.951,658.951,658.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-440.04-275.03-165.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,218.901,383.921,493.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,229.063,229.063,229.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Fair Value$77.44$126.81$135.32
Upside / Downside568.16%994.12%1,067.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,200.222,339.842,488.322,646.232,814.152,992.733,082.51
Payout Ratio24.60%37.68%50.76%63.84%76.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)541.28881.671,263.091,689.362,164.652,693.462,851.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Year 1 PV (M)823.27831.08838.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,101.291,122.291,143.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,375.381,414.921,455.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,645.591,708.971,774.16
Year 5 PV (M)1,911.962,004.442,100.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,559.9168,731.2172,024.05
Equity Value (M)72,417.3975,812.9279,336.30
Shares Outstanding (M)3,229.063,229.063,229.06
Fair Value$22.43$23.48$24.57
Upside / Downside93.50%102.57%111.99%

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