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Definitive Analysis

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Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. (601006.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.20 - $9.84$7.08
Multi-Stage$8.42 - $9.25$8.83
Blended Fair Value$7.95
Current Price$5.89
Upside35.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.61%3.10%0.500.410.360.360.360.360.390.240.360.40
YoY Growth--23.51%11.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%-6.88%62.30%-33.70%-8.19%7.07%
Dividend Yield--7.68%5.52%5.07%5.31%5.20%5.36%4.62%2.93%4.80%5.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,660.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,858.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,801.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,332.01832.51499.50
Cash Retained (M)3,801.763,801.763,801.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,332.01-832.51-499.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,469.752,969.253,302.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,560.5219,560.5219,560.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Fair Value$5.20$7.08$9.84
Upside / Downside-11.77%20.13%67.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,660.066,799.836,942.537,088.227,236.977,388.847,610.51
Payout Ratio42.92%52.33%61.75%71.17%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,858.303,558.604,287.035,044.465,831.806,649.967,039.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)3,311.873,344.623,377.38
Year 2 PV (M)3,713.163,786.983,861.52
Year 3 PV (M)4,066.264,188.124,312.39
Year 4 PV (M)4,374.994,550.674,731.59
Year 5 PV (M)4,642.874,877.085,120.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)144,660.66151,958.04159,546.98
Equity Value (M)164,769.80172,705.51180,950.51
Shares Outstanding (M)19,560.5219,560.5219,560.52
Fair Value$8.42$8.83$9.25
Upside / Downside43.02%49.90%57.06%

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