Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (600993.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.49 - $55.25$36.46
Multi-Stage$18.05 - $19.74$18.88
Blended Fair Value$27.67
Current Price$26.45
Upside4.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.40%11.05%0.410.380.380.300.270.160.230.200.210.04
YoY Growth--8.95%-1.41%27.63%11.86%71.93%-33.61%14.95%-2.73%418.91%-71.92%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.69%1.40%1.31%1.44%1.04%1.40%1.06%0.95%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)571.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)565.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.3271.4542.87
Cash Retained (M)565.11565.11565.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.32-71.45-42.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)450.79493.66522.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.09432.09432.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.141.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.141.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.161.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.49$36.46$55.25
Upside / Downside-3.65%37.85%108.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)571.60608.75648.32690.46735.34783.14806.64
Payout Ratio1.14%18.91%36.68%54.45%72.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.49115.10237.81375.99531.12704.83746.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103.77104.75105.74
Year 2 PV (M)193.28196.97200.68
Year 3 PV (M)275.50283.40291.46
Year 4 PV (M)350.84364.34378.21
Year 5 PV (M)419.75440.02461.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,457.746,769.657,093.50
Equity Value (M)7,800.888,159.138,530.66
Shares Outstanding (M)432.09432.09432.09
Fair Value$18.05$18.88$19.74
Upside / Downside-31.74%-28.61%-25.36%

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