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Definitive Analysis

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China Suntien Green Energy Corporation Limited (600956.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.52 - $83.52$78.27
Multi-Stage$12.51 - $13.68$13.08
Blended Fair Value$45.68
Current Price$7.70
Upside493.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.14%31.76%0.650.200.170.130.120.110.090.060.010.03
YoY Growth--233.40%15.57%33.55%8.80%3.63%21.36%63.49%320.00%-51.61%-32.61%
Dividend Yield--9.16%2.34%1.81%0.97%0.76%2.45%2.02%1.24%0.29%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,735.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,048.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)687.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)347.13216.96130.17
Cash Retained (M)687.50687.50687.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-347.13-216.96-130.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.37470.54557.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,132.764,132.764,132.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.52$78.27$83.52
Upside / Downside361.30%916.54%984.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,735.671,848.481,968.632,096.602,232.872,378.012,449.35
Payout Ratio60.39%66.31%72.23%78.16%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,048.171,225.761,422.021,638.611,877.362,140.212,265.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,140.171,150.981,161.78
Year 2 PV (M)1,230.351,253.791,277.44
Year 3 PV (M)1,318.751,356.611,395.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,405.381,459.431,515.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,490.271,562.251,636.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,101.7447,280.1749,541.97
Equity Value (M)51,686.6654,063.2256,528.38
Shares Outstanding (M)4,132.764,132.764,132.76
Fair Value$12.51$13.08$13.68
Upside / Downside62.42%69.89%77.64%

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