Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (600917.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.19 - $3.95$2.92
Multi-Stage$2.04 - $2.23$2.13
Blended Fair Value$2.53
Current Price$5.70
Upside-55.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.77%-3.29%0.120.140.140.080.080.070.120.120.140.13
YoY Growth---10.50%-0.23%61.71%2.73%12.43%-38.46%-2.03%-15.37%13.12%-25.62%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.18%1.81%1.18%0.71%1.15%1.58%1.54%1.18%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.5932.2519.35
Cash Retained (M)210.35210.35210.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.59-32.25-19.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.75178.10191.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,708.441,708.441,708.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$2.19$2.92$3.95
Upside / Downside-61.65%-48.72%-30.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.97270.64283.93297.87312.49327.84337.67
Payout Ratio18.46%32.77%47.08%61.38%75.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6288.68133.66182.84236.53295.05312.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)80.1080.8881.65
Year 2 PV (M)109.06111.16113.29
Year 3 PV (M)134.75138.68142.69
Year 4 PV (M)157.46163.61169.94
Year 5 PV (M)177.42186.13195.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,823.352,961.853,105.73
Equity Value (M)3,482.153,642.313,808.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,708.441,708.441,708.44
Fair Value$2.04$2.13$2.23
Upside / Downside-64.24%-62.60%-60.89%

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