Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yutong Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd. (600817.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.92 - $107.12$100.39
Multi-Stage$72.40 - $79.46$75.86
Blended Fair Value$88.13
Current Price$11.60
Upside659.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.06%0.00%0.510.380.350.010.590.200.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--33.28%8.48%4,229.13%-98.61%198.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%4.43%2.98%0.08%3.46%2.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)283.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.7035.4421.26
Cash Retained (M)217.06217.06217.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.70-35.44-21.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.36181.62195.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.33526.33526.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate-0.93%-0.93%-0.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.92$100.39$107.12
Upside / Downside683.82%765.43%823.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)283.51301.94321.56342.46364.72388.43400.08
Payout Ratio23.44%36.75%50.06%63.37%76.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.45110.96160.98217.04279.70349.59370.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.93%-0.93%-0.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)110.95112.00113.05
Year 2 PV (M)160.95164.01167.11
Year 3 PV (M)216.97223.19229.54
Year 4 PV (M)279.58290.33301.39
Year 5 PV (M)349.40366.27383.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,987.6638,774.1840,629.07
Equity Value (M)38,105.4939,929.9941,823.95
Shares Outstanding (M)526.33526.33526.33
Fair Value$72.40$75.86$79.46
Upside / Downside524.12%554.00%585.02%

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