Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Topchoice Medical Corporation (600763.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.83 - $229.55$215.12
Multi-Stage$30.47 - $33.33$31.87
Blended Fair Value$123.50
Current Price$44.04
Upside180.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.04%0.00%0.330.030.010.030.050.050.080.120.040.05
YoY Growth--1,233.44%67.90%-47.98%-38.96%-12.78%-32.42%-34.84%249.20%-25.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.06%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.07%0.16%0.42%0.18%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)516.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)310.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.3364.5838.75
Cash Retained (M)310.48310.48310.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.33-64.58-38.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.15245.90271.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)447.62447.62447.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.83$215.12$229.55
Upside / Downside60.83%388.47%421.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)516.66550.24586.00624.09664.66707.86729.10
Payout Ratio39.91%49.92%59.94%69.96%79.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.17274.70351.27436.63531.60637.08674.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)254.62257.03259.45
Year 2 PV (M)301.78307.53313.33
Year 3 PV (M)347.69357.67367.84
Year 4 PV (M)392.36407.45422.97
Year 5 PV (M)435.83456.88478.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,905.3212,480.3613,077.40
Equity Value (M)13,637.6114,266.9214,919.72
Shares Outstanding (M)447.62447.62447.62
Fair Value$30.47$31.87$33.33
Upside / Downside-30.82%-27.63%-24.32%

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