Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. (600711.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.65 - $37.15$22.08
Multi-Stage$10.29 - $11.24$10.76
Blended Fair Value$16.42
Current Price$10.32
Upside59.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.05%22.14%0.220.120.130.100.110.100.150.090.070.04
YoY Growth--86.56%-7.25%26.15%-11.78%14.07%-35.16%73.79%26.91%75.12%34.28%
Dividend Yield--3.90%2.61%2.21%1.17%1.75%2.42%2.36%1.02%0.99%0.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,006.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)711.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,294.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.28250.80150.48
Cash Retained (M)1,294.441,294.441,294.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.28-250.80-150.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)893.161,043.641,143.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,096.333,096.333,096.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.65$22.08$37.15
Upside / Downside41.92%114.00%260.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,006.422,136.842,275.742,423.662,581.202,748.982,831.44
Payout Ratio35.49%46.39%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)711.98991.241,303.791,652.792,041.652,474.082,619.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)898.92907.44915.97
Year 2 PV (M)1,072.251,092.681,113.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,232.681,268.061,304.12
Year 4 PV (M)1,380.881,433.991,488.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,517.521,590.811,666.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,768.2027,012.8128,305.06
Equity Value (M)31,870.4633,305.8034,793.97
Shares Outstanding (M)3,096.333,096.333,096.33
Fair Value$10.29$10.76$11.24
Upside / Downside-0.26%4.23%8.89%

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