Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.,Ltd. (600674.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.49 - $83.94$40.24
Multi-Stage$15.47 - $16.92$16.18
Blended Fair Value$28.21
Current Price$14.28
Upside97.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.28%32.78%0.510.370.360.340.310.270.250.270.240.14
YoY Growth--38.06%1.21%5.30%11.86%13.33%9.09%-8.33%11.11%80.00%356.50%
Dividend Yield--3.15%2.23%2.74%3.20%2.45%2.95%2.64%2.98%2.70%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,307.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)374.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,932.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)861.42538.39323.03
Cash Retained (M)3,932.463,932.463,932.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-861.42-538.39-323.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,071.043,394.083,609.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,871.824,871.824,871.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.49$40.24$83.94
Upside / Downside71.47%181.80%487.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,307.114,587.074,885.235,202.775,540.955,901.116,078.14
Payout Ratio8.70%24.96%41.22%57.48%73.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)374.641,144.872,013.642,990.514,085.885,311.005,622.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,044.811,054.721,064.62
Year 2 PV (M)1,677.061,709.011,741.25
Year 3 PV (M)2,272.992,338.242,404.73
Year 4 PV (M)2,834.142,943.133,055.23
Year 5 PV (M)3,361.983,524.373,692.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,158.0367,256.8870,474.34
Equity Value (M)75,349.0178,826.3582,433.14
Shares Outstanding (M)4,871.824,871.824,871.82
Fair Value$15.47$16.18$16.92
Upside / Downside8.31%13.31%18.49%

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