Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Foreign Service Holding Group CO.,Ltd. (600662.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.38 - $24.69$15.33
Multi-Stage$7.13 - $7.80$7.46
Blended Fair Value$11.40
Current Price$5.28
Upside115.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%11.60%0.140.120.200.000.000.000.030.050.050.05
YoY Growth--15.20%-40.01%299,627.84%-98.49%0.00%-100.00%-40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.60%2.59%3.25%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.51%0.82%0.46%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,098.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.18138.2482.94
Cash Retained (M)1,098.491,098.491,098.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.18-138.24-82.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)877.30960.251,015.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,268.832,268.832,268.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.38$15.33$24.69
Upside / Downside96.60%190.33%367.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.921,177.801,254.361,335.891,422.721,515.201,560.66
Payout Ratio0.67%18.54%36.40%54.27%72.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.43218.33456.62724.971,026.271,363.681,443.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.59199.46201.33
Year 2 PV (M)373.96381.09388.28
Year 3 PV (M)537.31552.73568.45
Year 4 PV (M)688.34714.81742.04
Year 5 PV (M)827.73867.71909.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,557.5514,212.3914,892.29
Equity Value (M)16,182.4816,928.1917,701.60
Shares Outstanding (M)2,268.832,268.832,268.83
Fair Value$7.13$7.46$7.80
Upside / Downside35.09%41.31%47.77%

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