Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (600600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$277.69 - $492.90$461.92
Multi-Stage$78.21 - $85.63$81.85
Blended Fair Value$271.88
Current Price$65.92
Upside312.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.11%15.88%1.471.330.810.560.400.350.320.260.290.33
YoY Growth--10.68%63.97%44.84%40.10%13.49%11.11%23.65%-11.67%-13.04%-0.99%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.60%0.67%0.71%0.47%0.77%0.69%0.63%0.88%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,629.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,557.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,071.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)925.89578.68347.21
Cash Retained (M)3,071.783,071.783,071.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-925.89-578.68-347.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,145.892,493.102,724.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$277.69$461.92$492.90
Upside / Downside321.25%600.72%647.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,629.454,930.365,250.835,592.145,955.636,342.746,533.03
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,557.672,214.602,950.353,772.394,688.835,708.476,043.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,064.692,084.262,103.83
Year 2 PV (M)2,564.452,613.302,662.60
Year 3 PV (M)3,057.023,144.773,234.19
Year 4 PV (M)3,542.473,678.703,818.83
Year 5 PV (M)4,020.894,215.104,416.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)130,838.59137,158.15143,719.56
Equity Value (M)146,088.11152,894.28159,955.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
Fair Value$78.21$81.85$85.63
Upside / Downside18.64%24.17%29.91%

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