Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (600549.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.38 - $77.08$45.81
Multi-Stage$21.53 - $23.49$22.49
Blended Fair Value$34.15
Current Price$29.60
Upside15.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.80%10.80%0.590.600.480.410.320.420.360.280.280.27
YoY Growth---3.14%26.68%16.73%26.30%-23.18%15.65%30.19%1.16%4.15%26.45%
Dividend Yield--3.03%3.07%2.34%2.21%1.76%3.72%2.34%1.38%1.67%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,107.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)896.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,210.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.47263.42158.05
Cash Retained (M)1,210.751,210.751,210.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.47-263.42-158.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)789.29947.341,052.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,567.661,567.661,567.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.38$45.81$77.08
Upside / Downside2.64%54.78%160.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,107.332,244.312,390.192,545.552,711.012,887.232,973.84
Payout Ratio42.55%52.04%61.53%71.02%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)896.581,167.861,470.621,807.812,182.612,598.502,750.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,059.101,069.131,079.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,209.451,232.491,255.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,348.291,387.001,426.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,476.221,533.001,591.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,593.831,670.821,750.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,064.1428,371.3529,728.59
Equity Value (M)33,751.0435,263.7836,832.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,567.661,567.661,567.66
Fair Value$21.53$22.49$23.49
Upside / Downside-27.27%-24.01%-20.63%

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