Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600521.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.31 - $25.40$13.25
Multi-Stage$5.50 - $6.01$5.76
Blended Fair Value$9.50
Current Price$21.19
Upside-55.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.88%11.71%0.330.380.100.200.270.140.140.130.110.08
YoY Growth---14.50%277.51%-49.37%-25.94%88.07%0.22%11.13%18.24%34.56%-24.94%
Dividend Yield--2.09%2.89%0.50%0.95%1.05%0.61%0.99%0.52%0.65%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)468.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)131.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)336.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.6158.5135.11
Cash Retained (M)336.79336.79336.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.61-58.51-35.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)243.18278.28301.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,459.601,459.601,459.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.31$13.25$25.40
Upside / Downside-60.77%-37.47%19.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)468.07498.49530.90565.40602.16641.30660.53
Payout Ratio28.05%40.44%52.83%65.22%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)131.28201.58280.46368.75467.33577.17610.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)183.61185.35187.09
Year 2 PV (M)232.69237.12241.59
Year 3 PV (M)278.67286.67294.82
Year 4 PV (M)321.68334.05346.78
Year 5 PV (M)361.88379.35397.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,656.006,977.487,311.27
Equity Value (M)8,034.528,400.038,779.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,459.601,459.601,459.60
Fair Value$5.50$5.76$6.01
Upside / Downside-74.02%-72.84%-71.62%

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