Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangxi Wuzhou Communications Co., Ltd. (600368.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.08 - $2.86$2.47
Multi-Stage$6.39 - $7.07$6.73
Blended Fair Value$4.60
Current Price$4.20
Upside9.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.05%-5.73%0.150.120.210.220.060.250.260.240.290.31
YoY Growth--23.48%-41.78%-1.11%287.78%-77.43%-4.69%8.59%-17.75%-7.35%12.89%
Dividend Yield--3.49%3.97%7.95%7.16%2.17%9.39%9.49%8.81%8.27%11.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)640.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)293.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)128.0380.0248.01
Cash Retained (M)346.28346.28346.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-128.03-80.02-48.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.26266.27298.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,609.391,609.391,609.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-7.73%-6.73%-5.73%
Fair Value$2.08$2.47$2.86
Upside / Downside-50.53%-41.14%-31.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)640.13597.03556.84519.34484.38451.76465.32
Payout Ratio45.90%54.72%63.54%72.36%81.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)293.85326.72353.83375.81393.22406.59430.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-7.73%-6.73%-5.73%
Year 1 PV (M)303.78307.07310.37
Year 2 PV (M)305.89312.56319.30
Year 3 PV (M)302.08312.01322.15
Year 4 PV (M)293.89306.84320.21
Year 5 PV (M)282.54298.19314.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,803.419,290.929,799.80
Equity Value (M)10,291.5910,827.5911,386.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,609.391,609.391,609.39
Fair Value$6.39$6.73$7.07
Upside / Downside52.26%60.18%68.45%

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