Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guizhou RedStar Developing Co.,Ltd. (600367.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.97 - $10.69$7.95
Multi-Stage$5.38 - $5.89$5.63
Blended Fair Value$6.79
Current Price$17.47
Upside-61.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.21%0.73%0.030.090.110.030.050.060.040.030.020.05
YoY Growth---68.19%-11.14%203.95%-32.67%-14.86%42.24%34.65%85.92%-63.12%66.36%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.85%0.70%0.15%0.66%0.86%0.46%0.31%0.13%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7917.3710.42
Cash Retained (M)130.89130.89130.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.79-17.37-10.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.10113.52120.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)331.65331.65331.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.340.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.340.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$5.97$7.95$10.69
Upside / Downside-65.84%-54.48%-38.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.97145.98153.34161.08169.21177.74183.08
Payout Ratio5.81%22.65%39.49%56.32%73.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.0733.0660.5590.73123.79159.97169.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)29.8030.0930.37
Year 2 PV (M)49.1950.1451.10
Year 3 PV (M)66.4468.3770.34
Year 4 PV (M)81.7184.9088.18
Year 5 PV (M)95.1799.83104.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,462.501,534.141,608.57
Equity Value (M)1,784.811,867.471,953.24
Shares Outstanding (M)331.65331.65331.65
Fair Value$5.38$5.63$5.89
Upside / Downside-69.20%-67.77%-66.29%

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