Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Chongqing Port Co.,Ltd. (600279.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.90 - $13.61$9.54
Multi-Stage$10.16 - $11.16$10.65
Blended Fair Value$10.09
Current Price$5.16
Upside95.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.34%3.54%0.150.180.190.240.050.190.280.120.110.12
YoY Growth---19.05%-3.96%-21.69%390.57%-73.17%-34.72%132.80%9.52%-3.44%9.96%
Dividend Yield--2.96%4.32%4.51%5.70%1.35%4.98%4.26%2.06%1.44%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)502.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)392.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.5162.8237.69
Cash Retained (M)392.23392.23392.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.51-62.82-37.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.72329.41354.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,190.471,190.471,190.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.54%2.54%3.54%
Fair Value$6.90$9.54$13.61
Upside / Downside33.71%84.88%163.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)502.55515.31528.39541.80555.55569.64586.73
Payout Ratio21.95%35.56%49.17%62.78%76.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.33183.26259.82340.15424.38512.68542.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.54%2.54%3.54%
Year 1 PV (M)170.38172.06173.74
Year 2 PV (M)224.59229.03233.52
Year 3 PV (M)273.37281.53289.84
Year 4 PV (M)317.11329.78342.84
Year 5 PV (M)356.17374.05392.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,747.9011,287.6811,848.94
Equity Value (M)12,089.5112,674.1413,281.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,190.471,190.471,190.47
Fair Value$10.16$10.65$11.16
Upside / Downside96.81%106.32%116.21%

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