Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangxi Guiguan Electric PowerCo.,Ltd. (600236.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.16 - $4.97$3.99
Multi-Stage$7.18 - $7.91$7.54
Blended Fair Value$5.76
Current Price$6.57
Upside-12.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.13%1.35%0.290.370.250.310.320.330.410.270.390.33
YoY Growth---23.53%49.09%-20.35%-2.21%-3.93%-17.72%52.30%-31.55%17.15%33.34%
Dividend Yield--4.43%6.35%4.50%5.90%5.76%7.32%8.84%6.11%7.68%7.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,538.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,090.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,448.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)507.74317.34190.40
Cash Retained (M)1,448.271,448.271,448.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-507.74-317.34-190.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)940.531,130.931,257.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,920.567,920.567,920.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-1.70%-0.70%0.30%
Fair Value$3.16$3.99$4.97
Upside / Downside-51.93%-39.29%-24.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,538.722,520.992,503.382,485.902,468.542,451.302,524.84
Payout Ratio42.95%52.36%61.77%71.18%80.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,090.451,320.051,546.381,769.491,989.412,206.172,335.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-1.70%-0.70%0.30%
Year 1 PV (M)1,229.501,242.001,254.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,341.501,368.941,396.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,429.761,473.831,518.81
Year 4 PV (M)1,497.181,559.041,622.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,546.421,626.691,710.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,854.4852,442.3955,136.67
Equity Value (M)56,898.8459,712.9062,639.71
Shares Outstanding (M)7,920.567,920.567,920.56
Fair Value$7.18$7.54$7.91
Upside / Downside9.34%14.75%20.37%

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