Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lushang Freda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Class A (600223.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.09 - $1.49$1.29
Multi-Stage$4.19 - $4.66$4.42
Blended Fair Value$2.86
Current Price$7.71
Upside-62.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.68%-6.61%0.180.480.110.200.110.050.730.650.620.43
YoY Growth---62.38%339.57%-45.00%83.30%120.00%-93.22%12.05%4.48%44.26%20.20%
Dividend Yield--2.40%5.63%1.03%1.81%0.91%0.74%18.17%17.58%11.67%7.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)157.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.8226.7616.06
Cash Retained (M)157.36157.36157.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.82-26.76-16.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.54130.60141.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,015.511,015.511,015.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Fair Value$1.09$1.29$1.49
Upside / Downside-85.92%-83.25%-80.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.11197.82182.77168.86156.01144.14148.47
Payout Ratio26.50%39.20%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.7577.5594.86109.09120.60129.73137.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)72.6573.4574.24
Year 2 PV (M)83.2585.0886.94
Year 3 PV (M)89.6992.6795.71
Year 4 PV (M)92.8997.02101.29
Year 5 PV (M)93.6198.84104.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,827.974,042.034,265.56
Equity Value (M)4,260.074,489.104,728.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,015.511,015.511,015.51
Fair Value$4.19$4.42$4.66
Upside / Downside-45.59%-42.67%-39.61%

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