Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grinm Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (600206.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.05 - $65.54$61.42
Multi-Stage$8.99 - $9.84$9.41
Blended Fair Value$35.41
Current Price$22.54
Upside57.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS84.66%26.91%0.180.160.120.140.020.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.47%39.47%-14.65%794.19%82.63%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.43%0.78%0.87%0.13%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)278.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.6934.8120.89
Cash Retained (M)158.94158.94158.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.69-34.81-20.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.25124.13138.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)844.99844.99844.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.05$61.42$65.54
Upside / Downside-2.18%172.50%190.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)278.47296.57315.85336.38358.24381.53392.97
Payout Ratio42.92%52.34%61.75%71.17%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.53155.22195.05239.40288.69343.37363.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)144.02145.39146.75
Year 2 PV (M)167.93171.12174.35
Year 3 PV (M)191.24196.73202.33
Year 4 PV (M)213.98222.21230.68
Year 5 PV (M)236.16247.57259.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,646.456,967.487,300.79
Equity Value (M)7,599.797,950.508,314.31
Shares Outstanding (M)844.99844.99844.99
Fair Value$8.99$9.41$9.84
Upside / Downside-60.10%-58.26%-56.35%

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