Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Jushi Co., Ltd. (600176.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.19 - $170.57$64.03
Multi-Stage$25.19 - $27.61$26.38
Blended Fair Value$45.21
Current Price$17.34
Upside160.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.66%5.47%0.360.630.570.290.280.330.290.290.200.21
YoY Growth---43.14%9.29%96.84%3.23%-14.01%11.63%0.12%48.48%-4.21%-1.29%
Dividend Yield--2.75%5.58%3.91%1.91%1.68%4.74%2.97%2.58%3.07%3.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,479.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,206.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,273.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)695.96434.98260.99
Cash Retained (M)2,273.632,273.632,273.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-695.96-434.98-260.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,577.671,838.662,012.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,003.184,003.184,003.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Fair Value$32.19$64.03$170.57
Upside / Downside85.65%269.27%883.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,479.803,656.163,841.454,036.144,240.694,455.614,589.28
Payout Ratio34.66%45.73%56.80%67.86%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,206.171,671.952,181.842,739.123,347.284,010.054,245.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.07%5.07%6.07%
Year 1 PV (M)1,557.651,572.621,587.59
Year 2 PV (M)1,893.731,930.301,967.22
Year 3 PV (M)2,214.902,279.362,345.07
Year 4 PV (M)2,521.642,619.972,721.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,814.422,952.263,095.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,846.7094,247.2098,818.44
Equity Value (M)100,849.05105,601.71110,534.92
Shares Outstanding (M)4,003.184,003.184,003.18
Fair Value$25.19$26.38$27.61
Upside / Downside45.28%52.13%59.24%

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