Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Mingxing Electric Power Co., Ltd. (600101.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.72 - $12.33$8.16
Multi-Stage$4.06 - $4.44$4.24
Blended Fair Value$6.20
Current Price$9.28
Upside-33.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.69%9.72%0.080.070.070.040.040.030.030.030.040.04
YoY Growth--22.54%-0.98%59.95%8.25%32.32%0.00%-4.88%-15.88%-10.59%27.07%
Dividend Yield--0.75%1.16%1.03%0.75%0.86%0.65%0.55%0.61%0.53%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)161.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.7220.4512.27
Cash Retained (M)161.04161.04161.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.72-20.45-12.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)128.32140.59148.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)547.92547.92547.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.72$8.16$12.33
Upside / Downside-38.41%-12.05%32.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.58174.22185.54197.60210.45224.13230.85
Payout Ratio1.56%19.24%36.93%54.62%72.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.5433.5368.53107.93152.18201.71213.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.2230.5030.79
Year 2 PV (M)55.6756.7357.80
Year 3 PV (M)79.0381.3083.61
Year 4 PV (M)100.42104.28108.26
Year 5 PV (M)119.97125.77131.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,838.351,927.142,019.33
Equity Value (M)2,223.662,325.722,431.57
Shares Outstanding (M)547.92547.92547.92
Fair Value$4.06$4.24$4.44
Upside / Downside-56.27%-54.26%-52.18%

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