Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiangcai Co.,Ltd (600095.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.78 - $3.05$2.33
Multi-Stage$3.11 - $3.42$3.26
Blended Fair Value$2.80
Current Price$13.18
Upside-78.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.14%32.11%0.160.190.260.180.110.190.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth---15.45%-28.59%43.52%68.17%-44.45%3,052.14%3.23%17.52%-24.12%-31.09%
Dividend Yield--2.07%2.68%2.72%2.18%1.27%1.88%0.12%0.09%0.04%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.0650.6630.40
Cash Retained (M)203.89203.89203.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.06-50.66-30.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)122.83153.23173.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,851.662,851.662,851.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Fair Value$1.78$2.33$3.05
Upside / Downside-86.50%-82.33%-76.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.31410.56415.88421.27426.73432.26445.23
Payout Ratio49.70%57.76%65.82%73.88%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.42237.13273.72311.23349.66389.03411.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Year 1 PV (M)220.03222.22224.42
Year 2 PV (M)235.67240.40245.17
Year 3 PV (M)248.64256.16263.82
Year 4 PV (M)259.21269.70280.51
Year 5 PV (M)267.60281.21295.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,643.098,031.798,436.15
Equity Value (M)8,874.249,301.489,745.43
Shares Outstanding (M)2,851.662,851.662,851.66
Fair Value$3.11$3.26$3.42
Upside / Downside-76.39%-75.25%-74.07%

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