Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. (600066.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$137.09 - $446.71$418.64
Multi-Stage$60.35 - $65.96$63.10
Blended Fair Value$240.87
Current Price$27.21
Upside785.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.51%17.14%2.001.010.500.501.020.530.591.061.540.71
YoY Growth--98.22%101.80%0.00%-51.22%94.04%-10.25%-44.30%-31.39%116.02%73.33%
Dividend Yield--7.54%4.79%4.05%5.94%7.14%3.86%4.22%4.72%7.16%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,976.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,328.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,647.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)995.34622.09373.25
Cash Retained (M)1,647.901,647.901,647.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-995.34-622.09-373.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)652.571,025.821,274.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,215.602,215.602,215.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.460.58
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.460.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$137.09$418.64$446.71
Upside / Downside403.81%1,438.54%1,541.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,976.695,300.185,644.696,011.596,402.356,818.507,023.05
Payout Ratio66.89%71.51%76.13%80.76%85.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,328.793,790.164,297.444,854.665,466.166,136.656,496.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,512.793,546.083,579.38
Year 2 PV (M)3,691.473,761.783,832.76
Year 3 PV (M)3,864.943,975.894,088.94
Year 4 PV (M)4,033.304,188.414,347.95
Year 5 PV (M)4,196.664,399.364,609.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,415.03119,941.32125,679.11
Equity Value (M)133,714.20139,812.85146,137.97
Shares Outstanding (M)2,215.602,215.602,215.60
Fair Value$60.35$63.10$65.96
Upside / Downside121.80%131.91%142.41%

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