DDM Analysis: 600031.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.84 - $150.83	$54.89
Multi-Stage	$24.30 - $26.60	$25.43
Blended Fair Value	$40.16
Current Price	$23.24
Upside	72.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.25%	12.36%	0.35	0.16	0.45	0.66	0.42	0.26	0.15	0.03	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	111.06%	-63.45%	-31.67%	57.61%	62.97%	73.92%	442.53%	201.48%	-79.18%	-60.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.82%	1.10%	2.63%	3.75%	1.22%	1.48%	1.14%	0.34%	0.12%	0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,243.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,508.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,734.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,648.62	1,030.39	618.23
Cash Retained (M)	4,734.52	4,734.52	4,734.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,648.62	-1,030.39	-618.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,085.90	3,704.13	4,116.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,459.21	8,459.21	8,459.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.44	0.49
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.44	0.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.78	0.85	0.90
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	4.25%	5.25%	6.25%
Fair Value	$30.84	$54.89	$150.83
Upside / Downside	32.71%	136.18%	549.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,243.08	8,675.64	9,130.90	9,610.05	10,114.35	10,645.10	10,964.46
Payout Ratio	42.56%	52.05%	61.54%	71.03%	80.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,508.56	4,515.76	5,619.00	6,825.59	8,143.34	9,580.59	10,142.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	4.25%	5.25%	6.25%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,184.83	4,224.97	4,265.12
Year 2 PV (M)	4,825.62	4,918.65	5,012.56
Year 3 PV (M)	5,432.27	5,590.11	5,750.97
Year 4 PV (M)	6,006.08	6,239.88	6,480.43
Year 5 PV (M)	6,548.30	6,868.46	7,201.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	178,546.96	187,276.44	196,344.07
Equity Value (M)	205,544.07	215,118.50	225,054.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,459.21	8,459.21	8,459.21
Fair Value	$24.30	$25.43	$26.60
Upside / Downside	4.55%	9.42%	14.48%

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Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd (600031.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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