Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. (600023.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.38 - $12.96$9.75
Multi-Stage$7.45 - $8.16$7.80
Blended Fair Value$8.78
Current Price$4.95
Upside77.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.17%1.87%0.360.110.100.310.290.290.280.330.380.39
YoY Growth--211.70%8.60%-66.40%6.46%1.31%3.99%-16.67%-12.20%-1.22%30.52%
Dividend Yield--6.23%1.73%2.93%9.21%7.39%8.54%5.60%6.03%6.68%6.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,282.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)940.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,342.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,456.56910.35546.21
Cash Retained (M)6,342.506,342.506,342.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,456.56-910.35-546.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,885.945,432.155,796.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,411.8613,411.8613,411.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Fair Value$7.38$9.75$12.96
Upside / Downside49.09%97.07%161.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,282.817,593.047,916.488,253.718,605.298,971.869,241.01
Payout Ratio12.91%28.33%43.75%59.16%74.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)940.312,151.043,463.214,883.276,418.028,074.678,547.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)1,948.461,967.331,986.20
Year 2 PV (M)2,841.612,896.922,952.76
Year 3 PV (M)3,629.453,735.923,844.45
Year 4 PV (M)4,320.914,490.734,665.52
Year 5 PV (M)4,924.275,167.375,419.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,248.5886,309.0790,528.37
Equity Value (M)99,913.27104,567.34109,397.28
Shares Outstanding (M)13,411.8613,411.8613,411.86
Fair Value$7.45$7.80$8.16
Upside / Downside50.50%57.51%64.78%

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