Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Financiero Inbursa, S.A.B. de C.V. (4FY.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.25 - $749.08$237.36
Multi-Stage$73.58 - $80.56$77.00
Blended Fair Value$157.18
Current Price$48.09
Upside226.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.001.070.340.170.310.30
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%211.98%98.01%-45.01%4.57%10.54%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.87%1.27%0.59%1.03%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35,048.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)274.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,773.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,009.764,381.102,628.66
Cash Retained (M)34,773.8934,773.8934,773.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,009.76-4,381.10-2,628.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,764.1330,392.7932,145.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,305.179,305.179,305.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.983.273.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.983.273.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.013.303.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.25$237.36$749.08
Upside / Downside166.69%393.58%1,457.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35,048.8037,326.9739,753.2342,337.1945,089.1048,019.9049,460.49
Payout Ratio0.78%18.63%36.47%54.31%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)274.916,953.0814,498.2522,994.9132,534.8943,217.9145,750.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,378.846,439.306,499.77
Year 2 PV (M)12,202.3912,434.8112,669.42
Year 3 PV (M)17,755.2018,264.8918,784.24
Year 4 PV (M)23,046.6423,932.9524,844.58
Year 5 PV (M)28,085.7929,442.3530,850.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)597,177.93626,021.85655,969.69
Equity Value (M)684,646.79716,536.15749,618.52
Shares Outstanding (M)9,305.179,305.179,305.17
Fair Value$73.58$77.00$80.56
Upside / Downside53.00%60.12%67.52%

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