Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Telekom Malaysia Berhad (4863.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.74 - $9.36$7.36
Multi-Stage$11.18 - $12.28$11.72
Blended Fair Value$9.54
Current Price$6.55
Upside45.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS70.21%1.44%0.280.170.100.140.160.020.120.210.210.22
YoY Growth--65.41%67.90%-29.29%-13.58%742.02%-83.46%-43.98%0.93%-5.15%-8.97%
Dividend Yield--4.25%2.83%2.06%2.92%2.69%0.52%3.76%4.05%3.26%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,999.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,189.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)810.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)399.98249.99149.99
Cash Retained (M)810.20810.20810.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-399.98-249.99-149.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)410.22560.21660.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,837.933,837.933,837.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Fair Value$5.74$7.36$9.36
Upside / Downside-12.38%12.35%42.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,999.902,008.672,017.472,026.322,035.202,044.122,105.45
Payout Ratio59.49%65.59%71.69%77.80%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,189.701,317.491,446.381,576.381,707.481,839.711,947.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Year 1 PV (M)1,222.911,235.211,247.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,246.161,271.361,296.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,260.661,299.081,338.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,267.481,319.241,372.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,267.591,332.631,400.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,647.3838,527.5440,484.08
Equity Value (M)42,912.2044,985.0547,139.53
Shares Outstanding (M)3,837.933,837.933,837.93
Fair Value$11.18$11.72$12.28
Upside / Downside70.70%78.95%87.52%

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