Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ARTERIA Networks Corporation (4423.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,051.25 - $1,612.70$1,313.15
Multi-Stage$2,312.48 - $2,544.05$2,425.99
Blended Fair Value$1,869.57
Current Price$1,970.00
Upside-5.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%61.6684.3653.0326.210.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.92%59.10%102.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.13%6.90%2.94%1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,800.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,023.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,777.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,160.00725.00435.00
Cash Retained (M)2,777.002,777.002,777.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,160.00-725.00-435.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,617.002,052.002,342.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.9449.9449.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.3841.0946.90
LTM Dividend per Share60.5360.5360.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.3841.0946.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.91101.62107.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,051.25$1,313.15$1,612.70
Upside / Downside-46.64%-33.34%-18.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,800.005,742.005,684.585,627.735,571.465,515.745,681.21
Payout Ratio52.12%59.70%67.27%74.85%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,023.003,427.783,824.154,212.264,592.234,964.175,255.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,181.233,213.693,246.15
Year 2 PV (M)3,293.833,361.393,429.64
Year 3 PV (M)3,367.163,471.293,577.55
Year 4 PV (M)3,406.863,548.063,693.60
Year 5 PV (M)3,417.903,595.883,781.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,814.94103,960.46109,318.14
Equity Value (M)115,481.91121,150.77127,046.27
Shares Outstanding (M)49.9449.9449.94
Fair Value$2,312.48$2,425.99$2,544.05
Upside / Downside17.38%23.15%29.14%

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